Barbara Bako, Abuja.
Nigeria is targeting a reduction in its debt-service-to-revenue ratio to 21.01 per cent by 2030 from 62.93 per cent in 2025, as the Federal Government pursues investment-grade sovereign credit status under its proposed National Development Plan (NDP) 2026–2030.
The Minister of State for Budget and Economic Planning, Dr Doris Uzoka-Anite, disclosed this at the sixth International Credit Rating Webinar organised by DataPro Limited held on Thursday.
The minister, in her keynote address at the webinar themed “Credit Rating as a Catalyst for Economic Transformation,” said the proposed development plan also projected a decline in public debt from 36.07 per cent of gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025 to 18.83 per cent by 2030.
She explained that achieving the targets would depend on sustained economic growth, prudent borrowing and effective fiscal management.
According to her, investment-grade status should be the outcome of stronger economic fundamentals, sustainable public finances, improved debt dynamics, rising productivity and credible institutions, rather than an end in itself.
Uzoka-Anite said sovereign credit ratings influence investor confidence, borrowing costs and access to international financing, making them important to Nigeria’s ambition to build a diversified, resilient and globally competitive $1 trillion economy by 2030.
Under the proposed NDP 2026–2030, government revenue is projected to rise from 11.15 per cent of GDP in 2025 to 18.70 per cent by 2030, while capital expenditure is expected to account for 57.43 per cent of total government expenditure, up from 36.03 per cent in 2025.
She said achieving these projections would require broader revenue sources, improved tax compliance, digitalised revenue administration and reduced dependence on volatile oil revenues.
The minister also stressed the need for more efficient public spending, noting that increased revenue mobilisation should support infrastructure, healthcare, education, human capital development and economic diversification.
On debt management, she said borrowing should finance productive investments rather than perpetuate fiscal pressures.
She identified Sukuk, green bonds and carefully structured public-private partnerships as potential instruments for development financing, provided their fiscal risks and value for money were properly assessed.
Uzoka-Anite further identified agriculture, manufacturing, refining, solid minerals, digital services, energy and logistics as sectors capable of strengthening Nigeria’s productive base, expanding exports and diversifying foreign exchange earnings.
The proposed development plan projects real GDP growth of 4.68 per cent in 2026, rising to 10.34 per cent in 2030, with an average growth rate of 7.79 per cent over the period.
Gross capital formation is also projected to reach 40 per cent of GDP by 2030, with the private sector expected to account for approximately 72 per cent of cumulative investment.
She said the government could not finance the country’s development requirements alone, stressing the need for an enabling environment that encourages private investment through improved infrastructure, reliable energy supply, access to finance, regulatory efficiency and policy predictability.
The minister identified institutional quality, transparency, accountability, consistent policies and reliable economic statistics as additional requirements for strengthening Nigeria’s sovereign creditworthiness.
She said the Federal Ministry of Budget and Economic Planning was institutionalising a National Macroeconomic Dashboard to monitor key indicators, including growth, inflation, revenue, fiscal balances, debt, investment, employment and external-sector developments.
The government has also constituted a Macroeconomic Assumptions Standing Committee to periodically assess macroeconomic indicators and report to the Economic Management Team, she added.
Uzoka-Anite, however, acknowledged that the success of Nigeria’s credit-rating ambition would depend on effective implementation of reforms and the extent to which economic gains translate into improved living standards.
She said the credibility of the NDP would depend not merely on its projections but also on effective coordination, alignment with annual budgets, reliable reporting and measurable results.
Credit ratings as a driver of economic transformation
Earlier, the Founder of DataPro Limited, Mr Abimbola Adeseyoju, said credit ratings had evolved beyond passive assessments of financial risk to become instruments for economic transformation.
Adeseyoju said sovereign credit ratings serve as a gateway to international capital markets, influencing investment flows, the cost of funds and the ability of economies to finance infrastructure, industrialisation and sustainable growth.
He said African countries needed to attract long-term capital, reduce borrowing costs and build economies capable of withstanding external shocks.
According to him, achieving and sustaining investment-grade status across the continent would require structural reforms, fiscal sustainability, deeper capital markets and greater transparency.
He also called for more objective and context-sensitive credit-rating methodologies that recognise the growth potential of African economies while adequately accounting for their risks.
Adeseyoju said African governments should strengthen domestic capital markets, improve data accessibility and enhance risk transparency to build investor confidence.
He reaffirmed DataPro’s commitment to providing transparent, credible and actionable market intelligence to connect capital seekers with investors.
He added that Africa’s progress towards investment-grade status would depend on deliberate policy implementation, sound market infrastructure and stronger cross-border collaboration.
The webinar brought together policymakers, regulators, international experts and capital market stakeholders to discuss the role of sovereign credit ratings in economic development and investment.
The panellists included Torsten Schmidt, Head of Macroeconomics and Public Finance Research at RWI–Essen; Daniel Cash, founder of the Credit Rating Research Initiative; Oluwakemi Babalogbon, Executive Director, Risk Management, Ministry of Finance Incorporated; Kai Gehring, Professor of Political Economy at the University of Bern; and Misheck Mutize, Lead Expert on Credit Rating Agencies at the African Peer Review Mechanism.
The session was moderated by Oladele Adeoye, Chief Rating Officer at DataPro.
DataPro Limited is licensed and regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission as a credit rating agency in Nigeria.
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