Global commodity prices are projected to fall to their lowest level in six years in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the World Bank Group’s latest Commodity Markets Outlook. Prices are forecast to drop by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, driven by weak global economic growth, a growing oil surplus, and persistent policy uncertainty.
Falling energy prices are helping to ease global inflation, while lower rice and wheat prices have helped make food more affordable in some developing countries. Despite the recent declines, however, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, with prices in 2025 and 2026 projected to be 23% and 14% higher, respectively, than in 2019.
“Commodity markets are helping to stabilize the global economy,” said Indermit Gill, the World Bank Group’s Chief Economist and Senior Vice President for Development Economics. “Falling energy prices have contributed to the decline in global consumer-price inflation. But this respite will not last. Governments should use it to get their fiscal house in order, make economies business-ready, and accelerate trade and investment.”
The global oil glut has expanded significantly in 2025 and is expected to rise next year to 65% above the most recent high, in 2020. Oil demand is growing more slowly as demand for electric and hybrid vehicles grows and oil consumption stagnates in China. Brent crude oil prices are forecast to fall from an average of $68 in 2025 to $60 in 2026—a five-year low. Overall, energy prices are forecast to fall by 12% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026.
Food prices are also easing, with declines of 6.1% projected in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026. Soybean prices are falling in 2025 because of record production and trade tensions but are expected to stabilize over the next two years. Meanwhile, coffee and cocoa prices are forecast to fall in 2026 as supply conditions improve. However, fertilizer prices are projected to surge 21% in 2025, reflecting higher input costs and trade restrictions, before easing 5% in 2026. These increases are likely to further erode farmers’ profit margins and raise concerns about future crop yields.
Precious metals have reached record highs in 2025, fueled by demand for safe-haven assets and continued central bank purchases. The price of gold—widely viewed as a safe haven during times of economic uncertainty—is expected to increase by 42% in 2025. It is projected to increase by a further 5% next year, leaving gold prices at nearly double their 2015-2019 average. Silver prices are also expected to hit a record annual average in 2025, rising by 34% and further 8% in 2026.
Commodity prices could fall more than expected during the forecast horizon if global growth remains sluggish amid prolonged trade tensions and policy uncertainty. Greater-than-expected oil output from OPEC+ could deepen the oil glut and exert additional downward pressure on energy prices. Electric-vehicle sales, which are expected to increase sharply by 2030, could further depress oil demand.
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